Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 0.086223 0.096047 0.106152 0.117298 0.129218 0.141561 0.155280
2025-01-12 0.069461 0.084101 0.099985 0.118374 0.138954 0.161157 0.186800
2025-01-19 0.056941 0.074494 0.094481 0.118616 0.146662 0.177937 0.215154
2025-01-26 0.052147 0.072677 0.096974 0.127278 0.163498 0.204867 0.255145
2025-02-02 0.045185 0.067173 0.094219 0.129028 0.171750 0.221633 0.283425
2025-02-09 0.040055 0.063217 0.092724 0.131766 0.180787 0.239098 0.312479
2025-02-16 0.034628 0.058160 0.089229 0.131481 0.185717 0.251382 0.335248
2025-02-23 0.032769 0.057708 0.091530 0.138456 0.199652 0.274672 0.371476
2025-03-02 0.030692 0.056667 0.092832 0.143988 0.211706 0.295695 0.405109
2025-03-09 0.026397 0.051857 0.088530 0.141681 0.213357 0.303529 0.422359
2025-03-16 0.022305 0.046865 0.083539 0.138044 0.212938 0.308507 0.435887
2025-03-23 0.020878 0.045961 0.084348 0.142359 0.223057 0.326983 0.466512
2025-03-30 0.019098 0.044415 0.084277 0.145670 0.232258 0.344909 0.497368
2025-04-06 0.017180 0.042432 0.083429 0.147845 0.240005 0.361163 0.526475
2025-04-13 0.015137 0.039963 0.081629 0.148499 0.245606 0.374650 0.552193
2025-04-20 0.015215 0.041466 0.086215 0.158741 0.264779 0.406380 0.601929
2025-04-27 0.013731 0.039758 0.085445 0.160840 0.272451 0.422817 0.631875
2025-05-04 0.012594 0.038585 0.085448 0.164048 0.281689 0.441412 0.664790
2025-05-11 0.011005 0.036233 0.083265 0.163727 0.285762 0.452992 0.688503
2025-05-18 0.010842 0.036956 0.086420 0.171827 0.302156 0.481510 0.734900
2025-05-25 0.010442 0.037087 0.088503 0.178236 0.316132 0.506820 0.777200
2025-06-01 0.008871 0.034244 0.085044 0.175566 0.316566 0.513360 0.794319
2025-06-08 0.007313 0.031110 0.080783 0.171352 0.314510 0.516308 0.806529